Climateprediction.net: Difference between revisions

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The project is one of the largest climate modelling experiments ever conducted in terms of computational scale and ensemble size, producing statistically significant distributions of future climate states rather than single deterministic projections <ref name=wiki>https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climateprediction.net</ref>.
The project is one of the largest climate modelling experiments ever conducted in terms of computational scale and ensemble size, producing statistically significant distributions of future climate states rather than single deterministic projections <ref name=wiki>https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climateprediction.net</ref>.
== Wikipedia page ==
[[wikipedia:climateprediction.net|climateprediction.net]]
== Overview ==
== Overview ==
climateprediction.net applies distributed computing to climate science by running thousands of perturbed climate simulations on volunteer computers worldwide. Each simulation varies uncertain physical parameters within plausible ranges, enabling probabilistic climate prediction through ensemble statistics.
climateprediction.net applies distributed computing to climate science by running thousands of perturbed climate simulations on volunteer computers worldwide. Each simulation varies uncertain physical parameters within plausible ranges, enabling probabilistic climate prediction through ensemble statistics.
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* HadCM3 and other models ensemble experiments <ref name=hadcm3>https://climateprediction.net/projects/completed-project/hadcm3-and-other-models/</ref>
* HadCM3 and other models ensemble experiments <ref name=hadcm3>https://climateprediction.net/projects/completed-project/hadcm3-and-other-models/</ref>


These completed studies provided foundational datasets for understanding climate variability, extreme weather attribution, and ensemble climate uncertainty.
These completed studies provided foundational datasets for understanding climate variability, extreme weather attribution, and ensemble climate uncertainty.[[File:Global Warming Predictions.png|thumb|Global Warming Predictions]]
 
== Model Systems ==
== Model Systems ==
CPDN has used multiple generations of climate models:
CPDN has used multiple generations of climate models:
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=== OpenIFS Models ===
=== OpenIFS Models ===
Recent CPDN simulations use ECMWF OpenIFS configurations, enabling higher-resolution global modeling. Some configurations require multicore execution and up to tens of gigabytes of RAM per job <ref name=reddit_openifs>https://www.reddit.com/r/BOINC/comments/1mhrgkw</ref>.
Recent CPDN simulations use ECMWF OpenIFS configurations, enabling higher-resolution global modeling. Some configurations require multicore execution and up to tens of gigabytes of RAM per job <ref name="reddit_openifs">https://www.reddit.com/r/BOINC/comments/1mhrgkw</ref>.


== BBC Climate Change Experiment ==
== BBC Climate Change Experiment ==
[[File:Global Warming Predictions.png|thumb|Global Warming Predictions]]The BBC Climate Change Experiment (2006–2009) was a major public engagement initiative involving over 120,000 volunteers.
The BBC Climate Change Experiment (2006–2009) was a major public engagement initiative involving over 120,000 volunteers.


Participants ran simulations covering:
Participants ran simulations covering:
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* Future scenarios (2000–2080)
* Future scenarios (2000–2080)


The experiment demonstrated the feasibility of large-scale public participation in climate modelling and contributed to early climate risk communication efforts <ref name=bbc>https://www.bbc.co.uk/sn/climateexperiment</ref>.
The experiment demonstrated the feasibility of large-scale public participation in climate modelling and contributed to early climate risk communication efforts <ref name=bbc>https://www.bbc.co.uk/sn/climateexperiment</ref>.[[File:Climate Zones, Scenario B1 2001 - 2025, Global (7242981050).jpg|thumb|Climate Zones, Scenario B1 2001 - 2025]]
 
== Computational Methodology ==
== Computational Methodology ==
Each CPDN work unit typically includes:
Each CPDN work unit typically includes:
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# Perturbed simulation with modified physical constants
# Perturbed simulation with modified physical constants


Outputs are aggregated across thousands of independent runs to derive probabilistic climate response functions <ref name=stainforth2005/>.
Outputs are aggregated across thousands of independent runs to derive probabilistic climate response functions <ref name="stainforth2005" />.
== Scientific Output ==
== Scientific Output ==
[[File:Climate Zones, Scenario B1 2001 - 2025, Global (7242981050).jpg|thumb|Climate Zones, Scenario B1 2001 - 2025]]CPDN data has contributed to numerous peer-reviewed studies in climate science, including:
CPDN data has contributed to numerous peer-reviewed studies in climate science, including:


* Stainforth et al. (2005) — climate sensitivity uncertainty distributions
* Stainforth et al. (2005) — climate sensitivity uncertainty distributions
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== Project Team and Sponsors ==
== Project Team and Sponsors ==
[[File:Climateprediction.gif|thumb|BOINC client running CPDN work units]]
The project is led by:
The project is led by:


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== Impact ==
== Impact ==
[[File:Climateprediction.gif|thumb|BOINC client running CPDN work units]]
climateprediction.net has had significant scientific and societal impact:
climateprediction.net has had significant scientific and societal impact:


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== Scientific Publications ==
== Scientific Publications ==
A full list of CPDN-related publications is maintained at:   
A full list of CPDN-related publications is maintained at:  https://climateprediction.net/publications/ <ref name=cpdn_pubs>https://climateprediction.net/publications/</ref>
https://climateprediction.net/publications/ <ref name=cpdn_pubs>https://climateprediction.net/publications/</ref>


Key peer-reviewed works include publications in Nature, Journal of Climate, and Environmental Research Letters.
Key peer-reviewed works include publications in Nature, Journal of Climate, and Environmental Research Letters.