Climateprediction.net: Difference between revisions
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{{Infobox software | {{Infobox software | ||
| name = climateprediction.net | | name = climateprediction.net | ||
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| screenshot = Climateprediction.gif | | screenshot = Climateprediction.gif | ||
| caption = climateprediction.net BOINC climate simulation screensaver | | caption = climateprediction.net BOINC climate simulation screensaver | ||
| status = Active | |||
| category = Climate study | |||
| compute = CPU | |||
| dependencies = None | |||
| developer = University of Oxford, UK Met Office, Open University, University of Reading | | developer = University of Oxford, UK Met Office, Open University, University of Reading | ||
| released = 2003 | | released = {{Start date and age|2003|12|09}} | ||
| operating system = | | operating system = Windows, Linux, macOS | ||
| | |||
| | | stats as of = {{Start date and age|2026|05|20}} | ||
| average performance = 141972.05 GigaFLOPS | |||
| active users = 6307 | |||
| total users = 309046 | |||
| active hosts = 9588 | |||
| total hosts = 668709 | |||
| website = {{URL|https://www.cpdn.org}} | |||
| license = Research software (climate model dependent) | | license = Research software (climate model dependent) | ||
}} | }} | ||
{{Lowercase title}} | |||
[[File:Boinc client rosetta climateprediction net.jpg|thumb|BOINC manager, running Rosetta@home and ClimatePrediction.net]] | [[File:Boinc client rosetta climateprediction net.jpg|thumb|BOINC manager, running Rosetta@home and ClimatePrediction.net]] | ||
'''climateprediction.net''' ('''CPDN''') is a volunteer distributed computing project operating on the [[BOINC]] infrastructure, designed to improve understanding of climate change by running large ensembles of global climate model simulations. It is jointly coordinated by the University of Oxford and partner institutions including the UK Met Office and multiple UK research centres <ref name=cpdn_about>https://www.cpdn.org/about.php</ref>. | '''climateprediction.net''' ('''CPDN''') is a volunteer distributed computing project operating on the [[wikipedia:BOINC|BOINC]] infrastructure, designed to improve understanding of climate change by running large ensembles of global climate model simulations. It is jointly coordinated by the University of Oxford and partner institutions including the UK Met Office and multiple UK research centres <ref name=cpdn_about>https://www.cpdn.org/about.php</ref>. | ||
The project is one of the largest climate modelling experiments ever conducted in terms of computational scale and ensemble size, producing statistically significant distributions of future climate states rather than single deterministic projections <ref name=wiki>https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climateprediction.net</ref>. | The project is one of the largest climate modelling experiments ever conducted in terms of computational scale and ensemble size, producing statistically significant distributions of future climate states rather than single deterministic projections <ref name=wiki>https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climateprediction.net</ref>. | ||
[[ | |||
== Wikipedia page == | |||
[[wikipedia:climateprediction.net|climateprediction.net]] | |||
== Overview == | == Overview == | ||
climateprediction.net applies distributed computing to climate science by running thousands of perturbed climate simulations on volunteer computers worldwide. Each simulation varies uncertain physical parameters within plausible ranges, enabling probabilistic climate prediction through ensemble statistics | climateprediction.net applies distributed computing to climate science by running thousands of perturbed climate simulations on volunteer computers worldwide. Each simulation varies uncertain physical parameters within plausible ranges, enabling probabilistic climate prediction through ensemble statistics. | ||
This approach addresses a fundamental limitation in traditional climate modelling: uncertainty quantification in long-term climate projections. | This approach addresses a fundamental limitation in traditional climate modelling: uncertainty quantification in long-term climate projections. | ||
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== History == | == History == | ||
The concept for CPDN was introduced by Myles Allen in 1999 in the Nature commentary “Do-it-yourself climate prediction” <ref name=allen1999> | The concept for CPDN was introduced by Myles Allen in 1999 in the Nature commentary “Do-it-yourself climate prediction” <ref name="allen1999">https://www.nature.com/articles/news991014-12</ref>. | ||
Key milestones include: | Key milestones include: | ||
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* HadCM3 and other models ensemble experiments <ref name=hadcm3>https://climateprediction.net/projects/completed-project/hadcm3-and-other-models/</ref> | * HadCM3 and other models ensemble experiments <ref name=hadcm3>https://climateprediction.net/projects/completed-project/hadcm3-and-other-models/</ref> | ||
These completed studies provided foundational datasets for understanding climate variability, extreme weather attribution, and ensemble climate uncertainty. | These completed studies provided foundational datasets for understanding climate variability, extreme weather attribution, and ensemble climate uncertainty.[[File:Global Warming Predictions.png|thumb|Global Warming Predictions]] | ||
== Model Systems == | == Model Systems == | ||
CPDN has used multiple generations of climate models: | CPDN has used multiple generations of climate models: | ||
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=== OpenIFS Models === | === OpenIFS Models === | ||
Recent CPDN simulations use ECMWF OpenIFS configurations, enabling higher-resolution global modeling. Some configurations require multicore execution and up to tens of gigabytes of RAM per job <ref name=reddit_openifs>https://www.reddit.com/r/BOINC/comments/1mhrgkw</ref>. | Recent CPDN simulations use ECMWF OpenIFS configurations, enabling higher-resolution global modeling. Some configurations require multicore execution and up to tens of gigabytes of RAM per job <ref name="reddit_openifs">https://www.reddit.com/r/BOINC/comments/1mhrgkw</ref>. | ||
== BBC Climate Change Experiment == | == BBC Climate Change Experiment == | ||
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* Future scenarios (2000–2080) | * Future scenarios (2000–2080) | ||
The experiment demonstrated the feasibility of large-scale public participation in climate modelling and contributed to early climate risk communication efforts <ref name=bbc>https://www.bbc.co.uk/sn/climateexperiment</ref>. | The experiment demonstrated the feasibility of large-scale public participation in climate modelling and contributed to early climate risk communication efforts <ref name=bbc>https://www.bbc.co.uk/sn/climateexperiment</ref>.[[File:Climate Zones, Scenario B1 2001 - 2025, Global (7242981050).jpg|thumb|Climate Zones, Scenario B1 2001 - 2025]] | ||
== Computational Methodology == | == Computational Methodology == | ||
Each CPDN work unit typically includes: | Each CPDN work unit typically includes: | ||
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# Perturbed simulation with modified physical constants | # Perturbed simulation with modified physical constants | ||
Outputs are aggregated across thousands of independent runs to derive probabilistic climate response functions <ref name=stainforth2005/>. | Outputs are aggregated across thousands of independent runs to derive probabilistic climate response functions <ref name="stainforth2005" />. | ||
== Scientific Output == | == Scientific Output == | ||
CPDN data has contributed to numerous peer-reviewed studies in climate science, including: | CPDN data has contributed to numerous peer-reviewed studies in climate science, including: | ||
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== Project Team and Sponsors == | == Project Team and Sponsors == | ||
[[File:Climateprediction.gif|thumb|BOINC client running CPDN work units]] | |||
The project is led by: | The project is led by: | ||
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== Scientific Publications == | == Scientific Publications == | ||
A full list of CPDN-related publications is maintained at: | A full list of CPDN-related publications is maintained at: https://climateprediction.net/publications/ <ref name=cpdn_pubs>https://climateprediction.net/publications/</ref> | ||
https://climateprediction.net/publications/ <ref name=cpdn_pubs>https://climateprediction.net/publications/</ref> | |||
Key peer-reviewed works include publications in Nature, Journal of Climate, and Environmental Research Letters. | Key peer-reviewed works include publications in Nature, Journal of Climate, and Environmental Research Letters. | ||
== See also == | == See also == | ||
* [[BOINC]] | * [[wikipedia:BOINC|BOINC]] | ||
* [[Climate model]] | * [[wikipedia:Climate model|Cimaste model]] | ||
* [[Climate sensitivity]] | * [[Wikipedia:Climate sensitivity|Climate sensitivity]] | ||
* [[Global circulation model]] | * [[wikipedia:Global circulation model|Global circulation model]] | ||
* [[Extreme weather attribution]] | * [[wikipedia:Extreme weather attribution|Extreme weather attribution]] | ||
== External links == | == External links == | ||
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== References == | == References == | ||
{{Reflist}} | |||