|
Tags: Mobile edit Mobile web edit |
| (21 intermediate revisions by 2 users not shown) |
| Line 1: |
Line 1: |
| <div style="background-color: #D4E2FC; border-top: 1px solid #5F92F2; font-size: bigger; padding-left: 15px; margin: 12px -5px -5px -5px;">'''BOINC project page template'''</div>
| | {{Infobox software |
| | | name = climateprediction.net |
| | | logo = Clim.jpg |
| | | screenshot = Climateprediction.gif |
| | | caption = climateprediction.net BOINC climate simulation screensaver |
|
| |
|
| Insert climate''prediction''.net logo (example image):[[File:{{#setmainimage:Boinc logo 3d.png|109x48px}}|alt=example image|center|frameless]]
| | | status = Active |
| | | category = Climate study |
| | | compute = CPU |
| | | dependencies = None |
|
| |
|
| [https://www.cpdn.org/cpdnboinc/ '''climate''prediction''.net'''] is a '''''[[wikipedia:Volunteer computing|volunteer distributed computing]]''''' project that needs your help to ...
| | | developer = University of Oxford, UK Met Office, Open University, University of Reading |
| | | released = {{Start date and age|2003|12|09}} |
|
| |
|
| == Why climate''prediction''.net? == | | | operating system = Windows, Linux, macOS |
|
| |
|
| * why this topic/object of study?
| | | stats as of = {{Start date and age|2026|05|20}} |
| | | average performance = 141972.05 GigaFLOPS |
| | | active users = 6307 |
| | | total users = 309046 |
| | | active hosts = 9588 |
| | | total hosts = 668709 |
|
| |
|
| == Goal == | | | website = {{URL|https://www.cpdn.org}} |
| * summarize the objectives and challenges which the project addresses, before jumping into details
| | | license = Research software (climate model dependent) |
| | }} |
| | {{Lowercase title}} |
| | [[File:Boinc client rosetta climateprediction net.jpg|thumb|BOINC manager, running Rosetta@home and ClimatePrediction.net]] |
| | '''climateprediction.net''' ('''CPDN''') is a volunteer distributed computing project operating on the [[wikipedia:BOINC|BOINC]] infrastructure, designed to improve understanding of climate change by running large ensembles of global climate model simulations. It is jointly coordinated by the University of Oxford and partner institutions including the UK Met Office and multiple UK research centres <ref name=cpdn_about>https://www.cpdn.org/about.php</ref>. |
|
| |
|
| == Methods == | | The project is one of the largest climate modelling experiments ever conducted in terms of computational scale and ensemble size, producing statistically significant distributions of future climate states rather than single deterministic projections <ref name=wiki>https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climateprediction.net</ref>. |
| * always including "why BOINC"?
| |
| * insert MediaWiki image or upload[[File:Example of a GUI.png|alt=example mediawiki image|none|thumb|example MediaWiki image]]
| |
| * impactful final statement
| |
|
| |
|
| == Project team / Sponsors == | | == Wikipedia page == |
| | [[wikipedia:climateprediction.net|climateprediction.net]] |
|
| |
|
| == Scientific results == | | == Overview == |
| * external links
| | climateprediction.net applies distributed computing to climate science by running thousands of perturbed climate simulations on volunteer computers worldwide. Each simulation varies uncertain physical parameters within plausible ranges, enabling probabilistic climate prediction through ensemble statistics. |
|
| |
|
| == Scientific publications ==
| | This approach addresses a fundamental limitation in traditional climate modelling: uncertainty quantification in long-term climate projections. |
|
| |
|
| # Miranda, Nicole, Jesus Lizana, Sarah Sparrow, Miriam Zachau-Walker, David Wallom, Radhika Khosla and Malcolm McCulloch. From 1.5ºC to 2.0ºC: the global increase in cooling degree days. (2023).
| | == Scientific Rationale == |
| # Li, Sihan, Sami Rifai, Liana O. Anderson and Sarah Sparrow. Identifying local‐scale meteorological conditions favorable to large fires in Brazil. Climate Resilience and Sustainability (2022). DOI: 10.1002/cli2.11.
| | The project is based on the recognition that climate models contain structural and parametric uncertainty. Instead of producing a single forecast, CPDN explores a probability distribution of outcomes by varying: |
| # Allen, M., B. Booth, David Frame, J. Gregory, J. Kettleborough and Leonard Smith. Observational constraints on future climate: distinguishing robust from model-dependent statements of uncertainty in climate forecasting. (2022).
| | |
| # Sparrow, Sarah, Andrew Bowery, Glenn D. Carver, Marcus O. Köhler, Pirkka Ollinaho, Florian Pappenberger, David Wallom and Antje Weisheimer. OpenIFS@home version 1: a citizen science project for ensemble weather and climate forecasting. Geoscientific Model Development (2021). DOI: 10.5194/gmd-14-3473-2021.
| | * Cloud parameterizations |
| # van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan, Folmer Krikken, Sophie Lewis ''et al''. Attribution of the Australian bushfire risk to anthropogenic climate change. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (2021). DOI: 10.5194/nhess-21-941-2021.
| | * Ocean heat uptake |
| # Bevacqua, Emanuele, Theodore G. Shepherd, Peter A. G. Watson, Sarah Sparrow, David Wallom and Dann Mitchell. Larger Spatial Footprint of Wintertime Total Precipitation Extremes in a Warmer Climate. Geophysical Research Letters (2021). DOI: 10.1029/2020GL091990.
| | * Aerosol forcing |
| # Andrews, Timothy, Christopher J. Smith, Gunnar Myhre, Piers M. Forster, Robin Chadwick and Duncan Ackerley. Effective Radiative Forcing in a GCM With Fixed Surface Temperatures. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres (2021). DOI: 10.1029/2020JD033880.
| | * Radiative transfer parameters |
| # Li, Sihan, Sarah N Sparrow, Friederike E L Otto ''et al''. Anthropogenic climate change contribution to wildfire-prone weather conditions in the Cerrado and Arc of deforestation. Environmental Research Letters (2021). DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac1e3a.
| | |
| # Di Capua, G., S. Sparrow, K. Kornhuber, E. Rousi, S. Osprey, D. Wallom, B. van den Hurk and D. Coumou. Drivers behind the summer 2010 wave train leading to Russian heatwave and Pakistan flooding. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science (2021). DOI: 10.1038/s41612-021-00211-9.
| | This ensemble-based method allows estimation of climate sensitivity ranges consistent with observed climate data <ref name=stainforth2005>Stainforth et al., Nature (2005)</ref>. |
| # Pham, Hoa X., Asaad Y. Shamseldin and Bruce W. Melville. Projection of future extreme precipitation: a robust assessment of downscaled daily precipitation. Natural Hazards (2021). DOI: 10.1007/s11069-021-04584-1.
| | |
| # Aengenheyster, Matthias, Sarah Sparrow, Peter Watson, David Wallom, Laure Zanna and Myles Allen. Impact of sub-seasonal atmosphere-ocean interactions on extreme event statistics. (2021).
| | == History == |
| # Leach, Nicholas J., Sihan Li, Sarah Sparrow, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Fraser C. Lott, Antje Weisheimer and Myles R. Allen. Anthropogenic Influence on the 2018 Summer Warm Spell in Europe: The Impact of Different Spatio-Temporal Scales. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (2020). DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0201.1.
| | The concept for CPDN was introduced by Myles Allen in 1999 in the Nature commentary “Do-it-yourself climate prediction” <ref name="allen1999">https://www.nature.com/articles/news991014-12</ref>. |
| # Naveau, Philippe, Alexis Hannart and Aurélien Ribes. Statistical Methods for Extreme Event Attribution in Climate Science. Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application (2020). DOI: 10.1146/annurev-statistics-031219-041314.
| | |
| # Undorf, S., K. Allen, J. Hagg, S. Li, F. C. Lott, M. J. Metzger, S. N. Sparrow and S. F. B. Tett. Learning from the 2018 heatwave in the context of climate change: are high-temperature extremes important for adaptation in Scotland?. Environmental Research Letters (2020). DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab6999.
| | Key milestones include: |
| # Iyyanki, Murali Krishna V. and Prisilla Jayanthi. The Impact of Climate Change on Human Eyes. Urban Health Risk and Resilience in Asian Cities (2020). | | |
| # Montes, Diego, Juan A. Añel, David C. H. Wallom, Peter Uhe, Pablo V. Caderno and Tomás F. Pena. Cloud Computing for Climate Modelling: Evaluation, Challenges and Benefits. Computers (2020). DOI: 10.3390/computers9020052. | | * '''1999''' – Concept proposal for distributed climate modelling |
| # Li, Sihan, Friederike E L Otto, Luke J Harrington, Sarah N Sparrow and David C H Wallom. A pan-South-America assessment of avoided exposure to dangerous extreme precipitation by limiting to 1.5 °C warming. Environmental Research Letters (2020). DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab50a2.
| | * '''2002''' – UK research council funding secured |
| # Watson, Peter, Sarah Sparrow, William Ingram ''et al''. Multi-thousand member ensemble atmospheric simulations with global 60km resolution using climateprediction.net. (2020).
| | * '''2003''' – Project launch |
| # Tozer, Carly R., James S. Risbey, Michael Grose ''et al''. A 1-Day Extreme Rainfall Event in Tasmania: Process Evaluation and Long Tail Attribution. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (2020). DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0219.1.
| | * '''2004''' – Migration to BOINC platform |
| # Fučkar, Neven Stjepan, Friederike E.L. Otto, Flavio Lehner, Izidine Pinto, Sarah Sparrow, Sihan Li and David Wallom. On High Precipitation in Mozambique, Zimbabwe and Zambia in February 2018. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (2020). DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0162.1.
| | * '''2006''' – BBC Climate Change Experiment |
| # Bussi, Gianbattista and Paul G. Whitehead. Impacts of droughts on low flows and water quality near power stations. Hydrological Sciences Journal (2020). DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2020.1724295.
| | * '''2009''' – BBC experiment concluded and data archived |
| # Di Capua, Giorgia, Kai Kornhuber, Eftychia Rousi, Sarah Sparrow, David Wallom and Dim Coumou. Wave-resonance fingerprint in the 2010 summer: a modelling experiment. (2020).
| | |
| # Min, Seung-Ki, Yeon-Hee Kim, Sang-Min Lee, Sarah Sparrow, Sihan Li, Fraser C. Lott and Peter A. Stott. Quantifying Human Impact on the 2018 Summer Longest Heat Wave in South Korea. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (2020). DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0151.1.
| | == Scientific Projects == |
| # Rimi, Ruksana, Karsten Haustein, Emily Barbour, Sarah Sparrow, Sihan Li, David Wallom and Myles Allen. A Multi-model Assessment of the Changing Risks of Extreme Rainfall Events in Bangladesh under 1.5 and 2.0 degrees’ warmer worlds. (2020).
| | |
| # Rimi, Ruksana H., Karsten Haustein, Emily J. Barbour, Richard G. Jones, Sarah N. Sparrow and Myles R. Allen. Evaluation of a large ensemble regional climate modelling system for extreme weather events analysis over Bangladesh. International Journal of Climatology (2019). DOI: 10.1002/joc.5931.
| | CPDN runs multiple research streams grouped into active and completed experiments. |
| # Baker, Hugh S., Tim Woollings, Cheikh Mbengue, Myles R. Allen, Christopher H. O’Reilly, Hideo Shiogama and Sarah Sparrow. Forced summer stationary waves: the opposing effects of direct radiative forcing and sea surface warming. Climate Dynamics (2019). DOI: 10.1007/s00382-019-04786-1.
| | |
| # Chen, Yang, Wei Chen, Qin Su ''et al''. Anthropogenic Warming has Substantially Increased the Likelihood of July 2017–Like Heat Waves over Central Eastern China. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (2019). DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0087.1.
| | === Current Projects === |
| # Lawal, Kamoru A. and Dáithí A. Stone. On the Co-Variability between Climate Indices and the Potential Spread of Seasonal Climate Simulations over South African Provinces. Atmospheric and Climate Sciences (2019). DOI: 10.4236/acs.2019.93027.
| | * DOCILE (Drives Of Change In mid-Latitude weather Events) |
| # Baker, Hugh S., Tim Woollings, Chris E. Forest and Myles R. Allen. The Linear Sensitivity of the North Atlantic Oscillation and Eddy-Driven Jet to SSTs. Journal of Climate (2019). DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0038.1.
| | * TNC (The Nature Conservancy partnership studies) |
| # Hawkins, Linnia R., David E. Rupp, Doug J. McNeall, Sihan Li, Richard A. Betts, Philip W. Mote, Sarah N. Sparrow and David C. H. Wallom. Parametric Sensitivity of Vegetation Dynamics in the TRIFFID Model and the Associated Uncertainty in Projected Climate Change Impacts on Western U.S. Forests. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems (2019). DOI: 10.1029/2018MS001577.
| | * GOTHAM (Globally Observed Teleconnections and their role and representation in Hierarchies of Atmospheric Models) |
| # Wehner, Michael F., Colin Zarzycki and Christina Patricola. Estimating the Human Influence on Tropical Cyclone Intensity as the Climate Changes. Hurricane Risk (2019).
| | * AFLAME (Attributing Amazon Forest fires from Land-use Alteration and Meteorological Extremes) |
| # Min, Seung-Ki, Yeon-Hee Kim, In-Hong Park, Donghyun Lee, Sarah Sparrow, David Wallom and Dáithí Stone. Anthropogenic Contribution to the 2017 Earliest Summer Onset in South Korea. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (2019). DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0096.1.
| | * HIASA (High Impact Atmospheric Simulation Analysis) |
| # Huntingford, Chris, Dann Mitchell, Kai Kornhuber, Dim Coumou, Scott Osprey and Myles Allen. Assessing changes in risk of amplified planetary waves in a warming world. Atmospheric Science Letters (2019). DOI: 10.1002/asl.929.
| | * EMBARK (ensemble-based climate risk modelling initiative) |
| # Marthews, T. R., R. G. Jones, S. J. Dadson, F. E. L. Otto, D. Mitchell, B. P. Guillod and M. R. Allen. The Impact of Human‐Induced Climate Change on Regional Drought in the Horn of Africa. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres (2019). DOI: 10.1029/2018JD030085.
| | * National Trust climate resilience modelling |
| # Li, Sihan, David E. Rupp, Linnia Hawkins ''et al''. Reducing climate model biases by exploring parameter space with large ensembles of climate model simulations and statistical emulation. Geoscientific Model Development (2019). DOI: 10.5194/gmd-12-3017-2019.
| | |
| # Lo, Y. T. Eunice, Daniel M. Mitchell, Antonio Gasparrini ''et al''. Increasing mitigation ambition to meet the Paris Agreement’s temperature goal avoids substantial heat-related mortality in U.S. cities. Science Advances (2019). DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aau4373.
| | These projects focus on attribution science, extreme event analysis, and climate risk quantification in regional systems <ref name=cpdn_projects>https://climateprediction.net/projects/</ref>. |
| # Philip, Sjoukje, Sarah Sparrow, Sarah F. Kew ''et al''. Attributing the 2017 Bangladesh floods from meteorological and hydrological perspectives. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (2019). DOI: 10.5194/hess-23-1409-2019.
| | |
| # Gaupp, Franziska, Jim Hall, Dann Mitchell and Simon Dadson. Increasing risks of multiple breadbasket failure under 1.5 and 2 °C global warming. Agricultural Systems (2019). DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2019.05.010.
| | === Completed Projects === |
| # de Abreu, Rafael C., Christopher Cunningham, Conrado M. Rudorff ''et al''. Contribution of Anthropogenic Climate Change to April–May 2017 Heavy Precipitation over the Uruguay River Basin. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (2019). DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0102.1.
| | * weather@home <ref name=weatherhome>https://climateprediction.net/projects/completed-project/completed-weatherhome-projects/</ref> |
| # Coxon, Gemma, Benoit Guillod, Jim Freer, Simon Dadson, Richard Jones, Thorsten Wagener, Ross Woods and Nicholas Howden. Projecting future changes in hydrological droughts in the UK : the impacts of bias correction and uncertainty in model predictions. (2018).
| | * HadCM3 and other models ensemble experiments <ref name=hadcm3>https://climateprediction.net/projects/completed-project/hadcm3-and-other-models/</ref> |
| # Freychet, N., S. Sparrow, S. F. B. Tett, M. J. Mineter, G. C. Hegerl and D. C. H. Wallom. Impacts of Anthropogenic Forcings and El Niño on Chinese Extreme Temperatures. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences (2018). DOI: 10.1007/s00376-018-7258-8.
| | |
| # Hirsch, Annette L., Benoit P. Guillod, Sonia I. Seneviratne ''et al''. Biogeophysical Impacts of Land-Use Change on Climate Extremes in Low-Emission Scenarios: Results From HAPPI-Land. Earth's Future (2018). DOI: 10.1002/2017EF000744.
| | These completed studies provided foundational datasets for understanding climate variability, extreme weather attribution, and ensemble climate uncertainty.[[File:Global Warming Predictions.png|thumb|Global Warming Predictions]] |
| # Li, Sihan, David E. Rupp, Linnia Hawkins ''et al''. Improving climate model accuracy by exploring parameter space with an O(10<nowiki><sup>5</sup></nowiki>) member ensemble and emulator. (2018).
| | == Model Systems == |
| # Otto, Friederike E L, Piotr Wolski, Flavio Lehner ''et al''. Anthropogenic influence on the drivers of the Western Cape drought 2015–2017. Environmental Research Letters (2018). DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aae9f9.
| | CPDN has used multiple generations of climate models: |
| # Philip, Sjoukje, Sarah Sparrow, Sarah F. Kew ''et al''. Attributing the 2017 Bangladesh floods from meteorological andhydrological perspectives. (2018).
| | |
| # Sparrow, Sarah, Qin Su, Fangxing Tian ''et al''. Attributing human influence on the July 2017 Chinese heatwave: the influence of sea-surface temperatures. Environmental Research Letters (2018). DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aae356.
| | === HadCM3-based Models === |
| # Kay, Alison L., Naomi Booth, Rob Lamb, Emma Raven, Nathalie Schaller and Sarah Sparrow. Flood event attribution and damage estimation using national-scale grid-based modelling: Winter 2013/2014 in Great Britain. International Journal of Climatology (2018). DOI: 10.1002/joc.5721.
| | The HadCM3 coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model formed the basis of early CPDN experiments. It allowed long-duration simulations at relatively low computational cost. |
| # Baker, Hugh S., Richard J. Millar, David J. Karoly ''et al''. Higher CO2 concentrations increase extreme event risk in a 1.5 °C world. Nature Climate Change (2018). DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0190-1.
| | |
| # Guillod, Benoit P., Richard G. Jones, Simon J. Dadson ''et al''. A large set of potential past, present and future hydro-meteorological time series for the UK. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (2018). DOI: 10.5194/hess-22-611-2018.
| | === Weather@Home System === |
| # Sparrow, Sarah, Richard J. Millar, Kuniko Yamazaki ''et al''. Finding Ocean States That Are Consistent with Observations from a Perturbed Physics Parameter Ensemble. Journal of Climate (2018). DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0514.1.
| | An extension enabling regional downscaling of global climate projections, widely used in extreme weather attribution studies. |
| # Philip, Sjoukje Y., Sarah F. Kew, Mathias Hauser, Benoit P. Guillod, Adriaan J. Teuling, Kirien Whan, Peter Uhe and Geert Jan van Oldenborgh. Western US high June 2015 temperatures and their relation to global warming and soil moisture. Climate Dynamics (2018). DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-3759-x.
| | |
| # Uhe, Peter, Sjoukje Philip, Sarah Kew ''et al''. Attributing drivers of the 2016 Kenyan drought: 2016 KENYAN DROUGHT. International Journal of Climatology (2018). DOI: 10.1002/joc.5389.
| | === OpenIFS Models === |
| # Schaller, Nathalie, Sarah N. Sparrow, Neil R. Massey, Andy Bowery, Jonathan Miller, Simon Wilson, David C. H. Wallom and Friederike E. L. Otto. Ensemble of European regional climate simulations for the winter of 2013 and 2014 from HadAM3P-RM3P. Scientific Data (2018). DOI: 10.1038/sdata.2018.57.
| | Recent CPDN simulations use ECMWF OpenIFS configurations, enabling higher-resolution global modeling. Some configurations require multicore execution and up to tens of gigabytes of RAM per job <ref name="reddit_openifs">https://www.reddit.com/r/BOINC/comments/1mhrgkw</ref>. |
| # Harrington, Luke J. and Friederike E. L. Otto. Changing population dynamics and uneven temperature emergence combine to exacerbate regional exposure to heat extremes under 1.5 °C and 2 °C of warming. Environmental Research Letters (2018). DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aaaa99.
| | |
| # Guillod, Benoit P., Richard G. Jones, Andy Bowery ''et al''. weather@home 2: validation of an improved global–regional climate modelling system. Geoscientific Model Development (2017). DOI: 10.5194/gmd-10-1849-2017.
| | == BBC Climate Change Experiment == |
| # Mulholland, David P., Keith Haines, Sarah N. Sparrow and David Wallom. Climate model forecast biases assessed with a perturbed physics ensemble. Climate Dynamics (2017). DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3407-x.
| | The BBC Climate Change Experiment (2006–2009) was a major public engagement initiative involving over 120,000 volunteers. |
| # Parker, Hannah R, Fraser C Lott, Rosalind J Cornforth, Daniel M Mitchell, Sarah Sparrow and David Wallom. A comparison of model ensembles for attributing 2012 West African rainfall. Environmental Research Letters (2017). DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aa5386.
| | |
| # Mitchell, Daniel, Paolo Davini, Ben Harvey ''et al''. Assessing mid-latitude dynamics in extreme event attribution systems. Climate Dynamics (2017). DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3308-z.
| | Participants ran simulations covering: |
| # Guillod, Benoit P., Richard G. Jones, Alison L. Kay, Neil R. Massey, Sarah Sparrow, David C. H. Wallom and Simon S. Wilson. Managing the Risks, Impacts and Uncertainties of drought and water Scarcity (MaRIUS) project: Large set of potential past and future climate time series for the UK from the weather@home2 model. (2017). DOI: 10.5285/0CEA8D7ACA57427FAE92241348AE9B03.
| | |
| # Parker, Hannah R., Emily Boyd, Rosalind J. Cornforth, Rachel James, Friederike E. L. Otto and Myles R. Allen. Stakeholder perceptions of event attribution in the loss and damage debate. Climate Policy (2017). DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2015.1124750.
| | * 20th century climate (1920–2000) |
| # Montes, Diego, Juan A. Añel, Tomás F. Pena, Peter Uhe and David C. H. Wallom. Enabling BOINC in infrastructure as a service cloud system. Geoscientific Model Development (2017). DOI: 10.5194/gmd-10-811-2017.
| | * Future scenarios (2000–2080) |
| # Rupp, David E., Sihan Li, Philip W. Mote, Neil Massey, Sarah N. Sparrow and David C. H. Wallom. Influence of the Ocean and Greenhouse Gases on Severe Drought Likelihood in the Central United States in 2012. Journal of Climate (2017). DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0294.1.
| | |
| # Rupp, David E., Sihan Li, Philip W. Mote, Karen M. Shell, Neil Massey, Sarah N. Sparrow, David C. H. Wallom and Myles R. Allen. Seasonal spatial patterns of projected anthropogenic warming in complex terrain: a modeling study of the western US. Climate Dynamics (2017). DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3200-x.
| | The experiment demonstrated the feasibility of large-scale public participation in climate modelling and contributed to early climate risk communication efforts <ref name=bbc>https://www.bbc.co.uk/sn/climateexperiment</ref>.[[File:Climate Zones, Scenario B1 2001 - 2025, Global (7242981050).jpg|thumb|Climate Zones, Scenario B1 2001 - 2025]] |
| # Rupp, David E. and Sihan Li. Less warming projected during heavy winter precipitation in the Cascades and Sierra Nevada: LESS WARMING DURING HEAVY PRECIPITATION. International Journal of Climatology (2017). DOI: 10.1002/joc.4963.
| | == Computational Methodology == |
| # Karoly, David J., Mitchell T. Black, Andrew D. King and Michael R. Grose. The Roles of Climate Change and El Niño in the Record Low Rainfall in October 2015 in Tasmania, Australia. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (2016). DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0139.1.
| | Each CPDN work unit typically includes: |
| # Otto, Friederike E. L. The art of attribution. Nature Climate Change (2016). DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2971.
| | |
| # Guillod, Benoit P., Neil Massey, Friederike E. L. Otto, Myles R. Allen, Richard Jones and Jim W. Hall. Synthetic drought event sets: thousands of meteorological drought events for risk-based management under present and future conditions. (2016).
| | # Model initialization and spin-up |
| # Black, Mitchell T., David J. Karoly, Suzanne M. Rosier ''et al''. The weather@home regional climate modelling project for Australia and New Zealand. Geoscientific Model Development (2016). DOI: 10.5194/gmd-9-3161-2016.
| | # Control simulation under baseline parameters |
| # Stott, Peter A., Nikolaos Christidis, Friederike E. L. Otto ''et al''. Attribution of extreme weather and climate‐related events. WIREs Climate Change (2016). DOI: 10.1002/wcc.380.
| | # Perturbed simulation with modified physical constants |
| # Mote, Philip W., David E. Rupp, Sihan Li ''et al''. Perspectives on the causes of exceptionally low 2015 snowpack in the western United States. Geophysical Research Letters (2016). DOI: 10.1002/2016GL069965.
| | |
| # Mitchell, Daniel, Clare Heaviside, Sotiris Vardoulakis ''et al''. Attributing human mortality during extreme heat waves to anthropogenic climate change. Environmental Research Letters (2016). DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/11/7/074006.
| | Outputs are aggregated across thousands of independent runs to derive probabilistic climate response functions <ref name="stainforth2005" />. |
| # Mote, Philip W., Myles R. Allen, Richard G. Jones, Sihan Li, Roberto Mera, David E. Rupp, Ahmed Salahuddin and Dean Vickers. Superensemble Regional Climate Modeling for the Western United States. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (2016). DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00090.1.
| | == Scientific Output == |
| # Black, Mitchell T. and David J. Karoly. Southern Australia’s Warmest October on Record: The Role of ENSO and Climate Change. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (2016). DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0124.1.
| | CPDN data has contributed to numerous peer-reviewed studies in climate science, including: |
| # Uhe, P., F. E. L. Otto, K. Haustein, G. J. van Oldenborgh, A. D. King, D. C. H. Wallom, M. R. Allen and H. Cullen. Comparison of methods: Attributing the 2014 record European temperatures to human influences: COMPARING ATTRIBUTION, EUROPE 2014 TEMPERATURE. Geophysical Research Letters (2016). DOI: 10.1002/2016GL069568.
| | |
| # Hannart, A., J. Pearl, F. E. L. Otto, P. Naveau and M. Ghil. Causal Counterfactual Theory for the Attribution of Weather and Climate-Related Events. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (2016). DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00034.1.
| | * Stainforth et al. (2005) — climate sensitivity uncertainty distributions |
| # Haustein, K, F E L Otto, P Uhe ''et al''. Real-time extreme weather event attribution with forecast seasonal SSTs. Environmental Research Letters (2016). DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/11/6/064006.
| | * Murphy et al. (2004) — probabilistic climate modelling framework |
| # Vautard, R, P Yiou, F Otto, P Stott, N Christidis, G J van Oldenborgh and N Schaller. Attribution of human-induced dynamical and thermodynamical contributions in extreme weather events. Environmental Research Letters (2016). DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/11/11/114009.
| | * Sexton et al. (2012) — regional climate uncertainty analysis |
| # van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan, Friederike E. L. Otto, Karsten Haustein and Krishna AchutaRao. The Heavy Precipitation Event of December 2015 in Chennai, India. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (2016). DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0129.1.
| | * Philip et al. (2019) — extreme weather attribution studies |
| # Schaller, Nathalie, Alison L. Kay, Rob Lamb ''et al''. Human influence on climate in the 2014 southern England winter floods and their impacts. Nature Climate Change (2016). DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2927.
| | |
| # Sippel, S., F. E. L. Otto, M. Forkel ''et al''. A novel bias correction methodology for climate impact simulations. Earth System Dynamics (2016). DOI: 10.5194/esd-7-71-2016.
| | The BOINC scientific publication archive also lists CPDN-derived contributions across multiple climate research domains <ref name=boinc_pubs>https://boinc.berkeley.edu/pubs.php</ref>. |
| # Añel, Juan, Tomas Pena, David Wallom and Diego Perez Montes. Enabling BOINC in Cloud Services: CPDN as Example. (2016).
| | |
| # Rupp, David E., Sihan Li, Neil Massey, Sarah N. Sparrow, Philip W. Mote and Myles Allen. Anthropogenic influence on the changing likelihood of an exceptionally warm summer in Texas, 2011: Changing likelihood of warm summers.. Geophysical Research Letters (2015). DOI: 10.1002/2014GL062683.
| | == Project Team and Sponsors == |
| # Li, Sihan, Philip W. Mote, David E. Rupp, Dean Vickers, Roberto Mera and Myles Allen. Evaluation of a Regional Climate Modeling Effort for the Western United States Using a Superensemble from Weather@home. Journal of Climate (2015). DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00808.1.
| | [[File:Climateprediction.gif|thumb|BOINC client running CPDN work units]] |
| # Otto, Friederike E. L., Karsten Haustein, Peter Uhe ''et al''. Factors Other Than Climate Change, Main Drivers of 2014/15 Water Shortage in Southeast Brazil. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (2015). DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00120.1.
| | The project is led by: |
| # Lawal, Kamoru A., Dáithí A. Stone, Tolu Aina, Cameron Rye and Babatunde J. Abiodun. Trends in the potential spread of seasonal climate simulations over South Africa. International Journal of Climatology (2015). DOI: 10.1002/joc.4234.
| | |
| # Otto, Friederike E. L., David J. Frame, Alexander Otto and Myles R. Allen. Embracing uncertainty in climate change policy. Nature Climate Change (2015). DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2716.
| | * Prof Myles R. Allen |
| # Massey, N., R. Jones, F. E. L. Otto ''et al''. weather@home—development and validation of a very large ensemble modelling system for probabilistic event attribution. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society (2015). DOI: 10.1002/qj.2455.
| | * Andy Bowery |
| # Mera, Roberto, Neil Massey, David E. Rupp, Philip Mote, Myles Allen and Peter C. Frumhoff. Climate change, climate justice and the application of probabilistic event attribution to summer heat extremes in the California Central Valley. Climatic Change (2015). DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1474-3.
| | * Dr Neven S. Fuckar |
| # Otto, Friederike E. L. Attribution of extreme weather. Nature Geoscience (2015). DOI: 10.1038/ngeo2484.
| | * Dr Sihan Li |
| # Otto, Friederike E. L., Suzanne M. Rosier, Myles R. Allen, Neil R. Massey, Cameron J. Rye and Jara Imbers Quintana. Attribution analysis of high precipitation events in summer in England and Wales over the last decade. Climatic Change (2015). DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1095-2.
| | * Dr Friederike E. L. Otto |
| # Sippel, Sebastian, Dann Mitchell, Mitchell T. Black, Andrea J. Dittus, Luke Harrington, Nathalie Schaller and Friederike E.L. Otto. Combining large model ensembles with extreme value statistics to improve attribution statements of rare events. Weather and Climate Extremes (2015). DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2015.06.004.
| | * Prof David Wallom |
| # Sippel, Sebastian, Peter Walton and Friederike E. L. Otto. Stakeholder Perspectives on the Attribution of Extreme Weather Events: An Explorative Enquiry. Weather, Climate, and Society (2015). DOI: 10.1175/WCAS-D-14-00045.1.
| | |
| # Rosier, Suzanne, Sam Dean, Stephen Stuart, Trevor Carey-Smith, Mitchell T. Black and Neil Massey. Extreme Rainfall in Early July 2014 in Northland, New Zealand—Was There an Anthropogenic Influence?. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (2015). DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00105.1.
| | CPDN is based at the University of Oxford, primarily within: |
| # Otto, Friederike E. L., Emily Boyd, Richard G. Jones, Rosalind J. Cornforth, Rachel James, Hannah R. Parker and Myles R. Allen. Attribution of extreme weather events in Africa: a preliminary exploration of the science and policy implications. Climatic Change (2015). DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1432-0.
| | |
| # Sippel, Sebastian, Jakob Zscheischler, Martin Heimann, Friederike E. L. Otto, Jonas Peters and Miguel D. Mahecha. Quantifying changes in climate variability and extremes: Pitfalls and their overcoming. Geophysical Research Letters (2015). DOI: 10.1002/2015GL066307.
| | * Environmental Change Institute |
| # Wesselink, Anna, Andrew Juan Challinor, James Watson ''et al''. Equipped to deal with uncertainty in climate and impacts predictions: lessons from internal peer review. Climatic Change (2015). DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1213-1.
| | * Oxford e-Research Centre |
| # Volunteer Crowd Computing and Federated Cloud developments. (2015).
| | * Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics group |
| # Hannart, A., C. Vera, B. Cerne and F. E. L. Otto. Causal Influence of Anthropogenic Forcings on the Argentinian Heat Wave of December 2013. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (2015). DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00137.1.
| | |
| # Thompson, Allen and Friederike E. L. Otto. Ethical and normative implications of weather event attribution for policy discussions concerning loss and damage. Climatic Change (2015). DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1433-z.
| | <ref name="cpdn_people">https://climateprediction.net/people</ref> |
| # Huntingford, Chris, Terry Marsh, Adam A. Scaife ''et al''. Potential influences on the United Kingdom's floods of winter 2013/14. Nature Climate Change (2014). DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2314.
| | |
| # Sippel, Sebastian and F E. L. Otto. Beyond climatological extremes - assessing how the odds of hydrometeorological extreme events in South-East Europe change in a warming climate. Climatic Change (2014). DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1153-9.
| | == Impact == |
| # Peterson, Thomas C., Martin P. Hoerling, Peter A. Stott and Stephanie C. Herring. Explaining Extreme Events of 2012 from a Climate Perspective. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (2013). DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00085.1.
| | climateprediction.net has had significant scientific and societal impact: |
| # Otto, Friederike E. L., Richard G. Jones, Kate Halladay and Myles R. Allen. Attribution of changes in precipitation patterns in African rainforests. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences (2013). DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2012.0299.
| | |
| # Rowlands, Daniel J., David J. Frame, Duncan Ackerley ''et al''. Broad range of 2050 warming from an observationally constrained large climate model ensemble. Nature Geoscience (2012). DOI: 10.1038/ngeo1430.
| | * One of the largest ensemble climate datasets ever produced |
| # Ricke, Katharine L., Daniel J. Rowlands, William J. Ingram, David W. Keith and M. Granger Morgan. Effectiveness of stratospheric solar-radiation management as a function of climate sensitivity. Nature Climate Change (2012). DOI: 10.1038/nclimate1328.
| | * Early demonstration of probabilistic climate prediction |
| # Peterson, Thomas C., Peter A. Stott and Stephanie Herring. Explaining Extreme Events of 2011 from a Climate Perspective. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (2012). DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00021.1.
| | * Major contribution to extreme weather attribution science |
| # Otto, F. E. L., N. Massey, G. J. van Oldenborgh, R. G. Jones and M. R. Allen. Reconciling two approaches to attribution of the 2010 Russian heat wave: RUSSIAN HEAT WAVE 2010. Geophysical Research Letters (2012). DOI: 10.1029/2011GL050422.
| | * Public engagement through BBC collaboration |
| # Pall, Pardeep, Tolu Aina, Dáithí A. Stone, Peter A. Stott, Toru Nozawa, Arno G. J. Hilberts, Dag Lohmann and Myles R. Allen. Anthropogenic greenhouse gas contribution to flood risk in England and Wales in autumn 2000. Nature (2011). DOI: 10.1038/nature09762.
| | * Influence on IPCC uncertainty framing methodologies |
| # Kay, A.L., S.M. Crooks, P. Pall and D.A. Stone. Attribution of Autumn/Winter 2000 flood risk in England to anthropogenic climate change: A catchment-based study. Journal of Hydrology (2011). DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.06.006.
| | |
| # Sanderson, Benjamin M., Karen M. Shell and William Ingram. Climate feedbacks determined using radiative kernels in a multi-thousand member ensemble of AOGCMs. Climate Dynamics (2010). DOI: 10.1007/s00382-009-0661-1.
| | == Scientific Publications == |
| # Ricke, Katharine L., M. Granger Morgan and Myles R. Allen. Regional climate response to solar-radiation management. Nature Geoscience (2010). DOI: 10.1038/ngeo915.
| | A full list of CPDN-related publications is maintained at: https://climateprediction.net/publications/ <ref name=cpdn_pubs>https://climateprediction.net/publications/</ref> |
| # Fowler, Hayley J., Daniel Cooley, Stephan R. Sain and Milo Thurston. Detecting change in UK extreme precipitation using results from the climateprediction.net BBC climate change experiment. Extremes (2010). DOI: 10.1007/s10687-010-0101-y.
| | |
| # Allen, Myles R., David J. Frame and Charles F. Mason. The case for mandatory sequestration. Nature Geoscience (2009). DOI: 10.1038/ngeo709.
| | Key peer-reviewed works include publications in Nature, Journal of Climate, and Environmental Research Letters. |
| # Stone, Dáithí A., Myles R. Allen, Peter A. Stott, Pardeep Pall, Seung-Ki Min, Toru Nozawa and Seiji Yukimoto. The Detection and Attribution of Human Influence on Climate. Annual Review of Environment and Resources (2009). DOI: 10.1146/annurev.environ.040308.101032.
| | |
| # Frame, D.J, T Aina, C.M Christensen ''et al''. The climate ''prediction'' .net BBC climate change experiment: design of the coupled model ensemble. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences (2009). DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2008.0240.
| | == See also == |
| # Ackerley, Duncan, Eleanor J. Highwood and David J. Frame. Quantifying the effects of perturbing the physics of an interactive sulfur scheme using an ensemble of GCMs on the climateprediction.net platform: SULFUR CYCLE UNCERTAINTY QUANTIFICATION. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres (2009). DOI: 10.1029/2008JD010532.
| | * [[wikipedia:BOINC|BOINC]] |
| # Lopez, Ana, Fai Fung, Mark New, Glenn Watts, Alan Weston and Robert L. Wilby. From climate model ensembles to climate change impacts and adaptation: A case study of water resource management in the southwest of England. Water Resources Research (2009). DOI: 10.1029/2008WR007499.
| | * [[wikipedia:Climate model|Cimaste model]] |
| # Sanderson, Benjamin M., R. Knutti, T. Aina ''et al''. Constraints on Model Response to Greenhouse Gas Forcing and the Role of Subgrid-Scale Processes. Journal of Climate (2008). DOI: 10.1175/2008JCLI1869.1.
| | * [[Wikipedia:Climate sensitivity|Climate sensitivity]] |
| # Sanderson, Benjamin M., C. Piani, W. J. Ingram, D. A. Stone and M. R. Allen. Towards constraining climate sensitivity by linear analysis of feedback patterns in thousands of perturbed-physics GCM simulations. Climate Dynamics (2008). DOI: 10.1007/s00382-007-0280-7.
| | * [[wikipedia:Global circulation model|Global circulation model]] |
| # Knutti, Reto, Stefan Krähenmann, David J. Frame and Myles R. Allen. Comment on “Heat capacity, time constant, and sensitivity of Earth's climate system” by S. E. Schwartz. Journal of Geophysical Research (2008). DOI: 10.1029/2007JD009473.
| | * [[wikipedia:Extreme weather attribution|Extreme weather attribution]] |
| # Knight, Christopher G., Sylvia H. E. Knight, Neil Massey ''et al''. Association of parameter, software, and hardware variation with large-scale behavior across 57,000 climate models. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2007). DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0608144104.
| | |
| # Collins, Mat. Ensembles and probabilities: a new era in the prediction of climate change. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences (2007). DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2007.2068.
| | == External links == |
| # Piani, C., B. Sanderson, F. Giorgi, D. J. Frame, C. Christensen and M. R. Allen. Regional probabilistic climate forecasts from a multithousand, multimodel ensemble of simulations. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres (2007). DOI: 10.1029/2007JD008712.
| | * https://www.cpdn.org |
| # Frame, D.J, N.E Faull, M.M Joshi and M.R Allen. Probabilistic climate forecasts and inductive problems. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences (2007). DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2007.2069.
| | * https://climateprediction.net |
| # New, Mark, Ana Lopez, Suraje Dessai and Rob Wilby. Challenges in using probabilistic climate change information for impact assessments: an example from the water sector. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences (2007). DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2007.2080.
| | * https://www.ox.ac.uk |
| # Allen, Myles R. and David J. Frame. Call Off the Quest. Science (2007). DOI: 10.1126/science.1149988.
| | * https://www.metoffice.gov.uk |
| # Pall, P., M. R. Allen and D. A. Stone. Testing the Clausius–Clapeyron constraint on changes in extreme precipitation under CO2 warming. Climate Dynamics (2007). DOI: 10.1007/s00382-006-0180-2.
| | * https://boinc.berkeley.edu |
| # Schwartz, Stephen E. Heat capacity, time constant, and sensitivity of Earth's climate system. Journal of Geophysical Research (2007). DOI: 10.1029/2007JD008746.
| | |
| # Hegerl, Gabriele C., Thomas J. Crowley, William T. Hyde and David J. Frame. Climate sensitivity constrained by temperature reconstructions over the past seven centuries. Nature (2006). DOI: 10.1038/nature04679.
| | == References == |
| # Knutti, Reto, Gerald A. Meehl, Myles R. Allen and David A. Stainforth. Constraining Climate Sensitivity from the Seasonal Cycle in Surface Temperature. Journal of Climate (2006). DOI: 10.1175/JCLI3865.1.
| | {{Reflist}} |
| # Allen, Myles, David Frame, Jamie Kettleborough and David Stainforth. Model error in weather and climate forecasting. Predictability of Weather and Climate (2006).
| |
| # Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim, Wolfgang Cramer, Wolfgang P. Cramer, Nebojsa Nakicenovic, Gary Yohe and Tom Wigley. Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change. (2006).
| |
| # Piani, C., D. J. Frame, D. A. Stainforth and M. R. Allen. Constraints on climate change from a multi-thousand member ensemble of simulations. Geophysical Research Letters (2005). DOI: 10.1029/2005GL024452.
| |
| # Stainforth, D. A., T. Aina, C. Christensen ''et al''. Uncertainty in predictions of the climate response to rising levels of greenhouse gases. Nature (2005). DOI: 10.1038/nature03301.
| |
| # Frame, D. J., B. B. B. Booth, J. A. Kettleborough, D. A. Stainforth, J. M. Gregory, M. Collins and M. R. Allen. Constraining climate forecasts: The role of prior assumptions. Geophysical Research Letters (2005). DOI: 10.1029/2004GL022241.
| |
| # Stott, Peter A., D. A. Stone and M. R. Allen. Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003. Nature (2004). DOI: 10.1038/nature03089.
| |
| # Allen, Myles R. and Richard Lord. The blame game. Nature (2004). DOI: 10.1038/432551a.
| |
| # Stainforth, David A., Myles R. Allen, David Frame, Jamie Kettleborough, Carl Christensen, Tolu Aina and Matthew Collins. Climateprediction.net: A Global Community for Research in Climate Physics. Environmental Online Communication (2004).
| |
| # Environmental Online Communication. Advanced Information and Knowledge Processing (2004).
| |
| # Murphy, James M., David M. H. Sexton, David N. Barnett, Gareth S. Jones, Mark J. Webb, Matthew Collins and David A. Stainforth. Quantification of modelling uncertainties in a large ensemble of climate change simulations. Nature (2004). DOI: 10.1038/nature02771.
| |
| # Joughin, Ian, Waleed Abdalati and Mark Fahnestock. Large fluctuations in speed on Greenland's Jakobshavn Isbræ glacier. Nature (2004). DOI: 10.1038/nature03130.
| |
| # Stainforth, D.A., D. Frame and J.P.R.B. Walton. Visualization For Public-Resource Climate Modeling. Eurographics / IEEE VGTC Symposium on Visualization (2004). DOI: 10.2312/VISSYM/VISSYM04/103-108.
| |
.jpg)
